In 1973, 72% of jobs in America required at most a high school diploma. In 2020, the share of jobs demanding a high school diploma or less will be half that, 36%, according to a new report from the Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. And to reinforce the increasing importance of higher education in finding a job, 65% of the 55 million job openings Georgetown projects through 2020 will require some postsecondary education.
The Center’s comprehensive report is entitled Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020, and its authors (Anthony Carnevale, Nicole Smith, and Jeff Strohl) relied on a “macro-micro modeling framework” to forecast educational demand by detailed occupations. Further, as the Center details on the first page of the report, “Our methodology is grounded in a macroeconomic analysis of the overall economy with state-by-state analyses.”
For the state-by-state analyses and micro part of its modeling framework, the Center used EMSI labor market data. The report is an update to Georgetown’s 2010 Help Wanted report that also used EMSI detailed employment numbers. Smith said she and her colleagues at the Center, an EMSI client, “rely heavily on EMSI for [a] state-by-state occupational breakdown of the stock of jobs by occupational code.” (More can be found on the Center’s approach in the report’s technical appendix.)
The Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce relies “heavily on EMSI for [a] state-by-state occupational breakdown of the stock of jobs by occupational code,” report co-author Nicole Smith said.
The report includes a summary of job projections by state and Washington, D.C. Northeastern states will have the highest proportion of bachelor’s and graduate degree jobs by 2020, according to the analysis, while West Virginia and Southern States (Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas) will have more jobs that require lower levels of education. Washington, D.C., meanwhile, will have the highest proportion of jobs (76%) requiring postsecondary education, followed by Minnesota and Colorado (74%).
Here are other noteworthy findings from the report:
More Than Half Of Openings Will be Replacement Jobs
Of the 55 million projected job openings, 31 million (56%) will be replacement jobs resulting from baby boomers retirements, the Center concluded. And if the U.S. continues on its current trajectory of educational output, it will be short five million workers to fill these vacancies.
The Center calculated the 55 million job opening figure using the same components — net new jobs plus replacement jobs — that EMSI uses to calculate estimated annual openings by occupation.
Fastest-Growing Occupations Groups: STEM, Healthcare, Community Services
In three of the four fastest-growing occupation groups — STEM, healthcare professionals, and community services — at least 88% of workers have postsecondary education and training. The highest proportion is in STEM fields (a stunning 95%), which collectively Georgetown projects will growth 26% through 2020. Healthcare professionals are projected to growth 31%.
Sales and Support Occupations Make Up Nearly 1 in 4 New Jobs (And 1 in 3 Replacement Jobs)
The Center estimates that sales and support occupations will represent 14 million of the 55 million job openings. And of those 14 million, 9.6 million will be replacement jobs. So sales and support accounts for 1 in 3 of all projected replacement jobs.
The full breakdown in this table from the report (pg. 9):
For the full report, see here. And for more on EMSI data, see this page and contact Josh Wright (jwright@economicmodeling.com). You can EMSI on Twitter here: @DesktopEcon.